Painfully Accurate: The 10YR3M Recession Indicator
The spread between the 10YR Treasury Rate and the 3-Month Treasury rate, often referred to as the 10YR3M spread, is one of the most reliable
The spread between the 10YR Treasury Rate and the 3-Month Treasury rate, often referred to as the 10YR3M spread, is one of the most reliable
The US housing market is in the middle of its 6th major downturn since the late 1960s. Home prices are declining in 75% of major
With updates for Retail Sales and Industrial Production, we now have a majority of the Coincident data for the April reporting period. April data will
The Regional Banking Crisis has continued after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. First Republic Bank failed in late April, and several other banks have
The US economy has been mired in a slowdown for well over a year, which has caused a significant amount of fatigue among investors, forecasters,
Weekly Update: Week 16 In this Weekly Update, we will reiterate why a recession is either already underway or virtually certain to occur in the
Yes, The Cycle Still Cycles… Traditional leading economic indicators place a heavy focus on data from the construction and manufacturing sectors. Over the last several
Three Sequential Signals of Recession Timing and predicting recessions is an important task, not only for traders looking to make a profit but also for
Copyright 2023 • EPB Research