An Update on the Banking Crisis
It has been roughly four months since the regional banking crisis started with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March. With several months of
Slowing But Growing (With Some Cracks)
In this report, we’ll review the most recent Employment Situation data and use our Leading and Coincident Employment Indexes, as well as the breakdown of
What You Should Look For In This Week’s Jobs Report
What You Should Look For In This Week’s Jobs Report The fate of the next Federal Reserve decision will be decided on Friday. If the
Premature Sigh Of Relief
With the most recent personal income and personal consumption data, the Aggregate Coincident Index declined in May to a growth rate of 1.2%. As a
This Trend Is Not Your Friend
Interest rates in the United States and around the world have been declining for decades. More specifically, “real” interest rates have been declining in what
Dangerously Opposed To The Cycle
This was a very busy week of macro data and events, including updates to the CPI, retail sales, industrial production, initial jobless claims, and the
Jobless Claims Jump In June
This was a very light week of economic news, so in this update, we’ll focus on the weekly labor data to help refine and update
Where The Unemployment Rate Is Rising The Most
When the economy moves into recession or out of recession, it doesn’t happen all at once. It’s a process. In this post, we will look
Labor Market Update
The BLS modeled that the economy added 339,000 jobs in May, much higher than consensus expectations. When the headline nonfarm payrolls number surprises strongly to
The Driving Force Behind the Current Economic Cycle
An objective reading of the business cycle shows that a recession in the United States is imminent. Leading indicators of the business cycle continue to
More Evidence The Recession Started
The economy continues to decelerate, and the most recent data adds significant evidence to the possibility the economy entered a recession last year or at
Painfully Accurate: The 10YR3M Recession Indicator
The spread between the 10YR Treasury Rate and the 3-Month Treasury rate, often referred to as the 10YR3M spread, is one of the most reliable
US Home Prices: Comparing Depth, Duration & Dispersion
The US housing market is in the middle of its 6th major downturn since the late 1960s. Home prices are declining in 75% of major
Consumer Spending
With updates for Retail Sales and Industrial Production, we now have a majority of the Coincident data for the April reporting period. April data will
Employment Diffusion & Turning Points
Three big events defined this week, including softer-than-expected inflation data, worse-than-expected labor market data, and further pressure on regional banks, namely PacWest Bancorp. Starting with
An Update On The Regional Banking Crisis
The Regional Banking Crisis has continued after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. First Republic Bank failed in late April, and several other banks have
Historical Leads & Lags
The US economy has been mired in a slowdown for well over a year, which has caused a significant amount of fatigue among investors, forecasters,
The Anatomy of a Banking Crisis
The Anatomy of a Banking Crisis Since real estate has become such an important part of these secular trends, these quarterly updates always have a
The Worst Is Yet To Come
Weekly Update: Week 16 In this Weekly Update, we will reiterate why a recession is either already underway or virtually certain to occur in the
Yes, The Cycle Still Cycles
Yes, The Cycle Still Cycles… Traditional leading economic indicators place a heavy focus on data from the construction and manufacturing sectors. Over the last several
Consumer Pressure
Weekly Update: Week 15 This was a relatively heavy week of economic data including CPI, retail sales and industrial production. Starting with retail sales, growth
Three Sequential Signals of Recession
Three Sequential Signals of Recession Timing and predicting recessions is an important task, not only for traders looking to make a profit but also for
Why the 2023 Banking Crisis is Just Getting Started
The Banking Crisis Explained Watch the explainer video here. The US economy has been hit with a string of bank failures, and these bank failures
The Real Reason Home Prices Are Falling
The Decline of Home Prices The downturn in US home prices continues to intensify with the Case-Shiller Index falling for the sixth consecutive month and
The Next Debt Crisis
The Next Debt Crisis The US economy is under a crushing debt burden. Total debt in the US economy is more than 350% of GDP.
Why $1 Trillion of US Income Disappeared
Why $1 Trillion Disappeared Since the pandemic started in February 2020, over $1 trillion has vanished from working Americans. Over the last three years, many
Where The US Housing Market Is Heading – Housing Deep Dive
Housing Deep Dive: Q1 2023 The construction cycle in residential housing is the most important cycle in the economy. The residential construction sector is often
Simplify Interview: Secular, Cyclical… It’s all a fubar fugazi!
Michael Green and Harley Bassman sit down with business cycle expert, Eric Basmajian, to discuss the timing for a 2023 recession and the implications for
GDP Report: What The Data Is Saying
The economy reportedly grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, according to the latest GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A Deep Dive Into Global Demographics
The global economy is at a demographic tipping point, about to experience an unprecedented collapse in demand and tax revenue that threatens to destabilize the